Foley: ‘Notable Recovery’ in Bizav over Past Year

According to business aviation analyst Brian Foley of Brian Foley Associates, the business aviation industry has made a “notable recovery” since last year’s NBAA Convention. “There are still some high-profile laggards, [such as] the small and midsize business jet manufacturers,” he said, “but overall the majority of businesses have noticeably improved year-over-year.” In fact, Foley observed that some industry segments–including MRO, FBO, charter and fractional–are seeing better results across the board. “These types of companies were the first affected by the downturn and are now the first out,” he said. While industry recovery in general is “admittedly slow,” Foley said it is “at least moving in the right direction.” He still expects industry growth to average 2.7 percent per year over the next decade. As a whole, Foley said, most business volumes are now about midway between the peaks of 2007/2008 and the trough of 2009. “Those who have changed their expectations about returning to prior peak levels and have instead adapted and optimized for the current environment are poised for long-term success,” he said. “Others who still view past peaks as historic norms are exhibiting illusory hopes.” Foley said it’s more realistic that activity will eventually return to 2005/2006 levels, “which were healthy, but not peak, and at the time were regarded as prosperous periods.”

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