Analysts See Brighter Year Ahead for Business Aviation

Two business aviation analysts believe that business aviation is set for recovery this year, rather than the 2012 turnaround predicted by most prognosticators during the latter part of last year. According to bizav consultant Rolland Vincent, “It has been and continues to be a challenging time for many, but the darkest days of this current downturn appear to be in the past.” He points to increasing corporate profits, rising business aircraft flying activity and the fact that general aviation aircraft delivery billings in the first nine months of last year were the fourth highest on record as signs that things are indeed getting better. Meanwhile, industry consultant Brian Foley told AIN, “Our perspective is that mid-2011 will be the first time since 2007 that all segments of the industry will be simultaneously improving. That said, the first couple of quarters could still see further consolidation, restructuring and ownership changes.” He said 2009 appears to have been the delivery trough for pistons, “And, contrary to most others’ thinking, perhaps 2010 for jets and turboprops.” While business conditions will improve throughout the year, Foley said this recovery won’t manifest itself as increased deliveries until later this year or early next year, since deliveries lag sales by about 12 months. “Through 2015 we’re estimating an average yearly growth rate of 8 percent for jet deliveries. But because the light and midsize segments were by far the most battered, they’ll actually be the growth leaders, averaging 15- to 20-percent compound annual growth over the next five years,” he concluded.


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